Fool’s gold or true treasure? Gold prices could surge to record highs

In the later half of 2025, CIBC Capital Markets analysts expect the price of gold to reach a record high of US$3,600 per ounce — and maintain that into next year.

CIBC analyst Anita Soni says that the cloud of uncertainty hanging over the world this year is brightening the allure of alternative reserve assets. In December 2024, her team predicted gold prices would average $2,800 per ounce this year.

The big three

CIBC Capital Markets identified three factors driving the bullish trend in global gold markets:

Expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
Ongoing geopolitical tensions
Accumulation by central banks

“In that seven months, U.S. President Trump has taken office, initiated a global trade war and implemented several protective tariffs impacting goods imported into the United States, and threatened and backed off from multitudes more,” Soni wrote in a recent report.

“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia remain elevated,” she added. “All this uncertainty has led to the acceleration of de-dollarization, supporting gold prices.”

Increasing price targets

The current market price of bullion (GC=F) has increased 28% year-to-date. In late April, gold reached a record trading high at nearly US$3,500. In the months since, prices have reared back into the US$3,300-range.

CIBC Capital Markets now expects bullion to average US$3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, and through 2026. In 2027, the bank forecasts US$3,300 per ounce, falling to US$3,000 in 2028.

CIBC recently bumped up its price targets for 36 Canadian gold stocks. This is because it expects lower interest rates, global political uncertainty, and that central banks will continue to stockpile gold.

“We continue to expect a positive macroeconomic setup for gold,” Soni wrote. “We believe [US] rate cuts are likely and it’s a matter of ‘when and how fast’, and not ‘if.’”