In response to the recent Liberal win in the 2025 election, many Albertans and other Canadians are rallying for separation.
Alberta separatist movements have been going strong for many years and appear to be the most pronounced after a Liberal election win.
Many conflicting views come with the concept of separation. Part of the desire to split off from the rest of Canada comes from Alberta’s history of financial and political neglect out of Ottawa.
Separatist candidates have run in Albertan elections since the 1930s. unlike separatist politicians in Quebec, they have never won power.
In a 2019 Environics Institute survey, 56% of Albertans respondents agreed with the statement, “Western Canada gets so few benefits from being part of Canada that they might as well go it on their own” — up 28 points from 2010.
The Trudeaus vs Oil & Gas
Separatism movements can sit on any part of the political spectrum from left to right. In Alberta’s case, it tends to land on the right.
This is partly because of the implementation of the controversial National Energy Programme by Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau in the 80s. This centralized control of Albertan oil with the federal government.
The legacy of frustration only continued with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his similarly controversial and backwards approaches to the oil and gas industry.
Many argue that his rhetoric and choices around climate change placed a target on the oil industry, deflated the price of oil even further and stalled important projects that were just picking up again after the 2018 slump.
Cutting ties
The outrage and frustration Albertans feel regarding Alberta’s role in Canada as a whole fuels the desire to separate. Many of these concerns are valid and need to be heard — but it’s many Albertan’s believe time has run out and want independence.
A few days after the 2025 federal election, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith tabled a bill to make it easier for voters in her province to force a referendum to secede from Canada.
After explicitly endorsing separation, she has been accused of exploiting the separatist sentiment to stimulate her base and divert attention from other issues.
Theoretically, the bill could be a stepping stone in the province’s conversion to the 51st state — a daunting and threatening prospect for many Canadians.
The bill lowers the threshold for a citizen-launched petition from about 600,000 signatures to about 170,000, which separatists hope could allow the vote to go through.
During the election, Smith expressed that a re-elected Liberal government would spike secessionist sentiments across Alberta and Saskatchewan, both heavily conservative provinces that benefit from the oil and gas industry.
Many prairie voters are fed up with the federal government and blame it for legislation that restricts pipeline development and caps emissions on the money-spinning oil sands.
What would happen?
It’s one thing to envision separation and be passionate about, it’s another to fulfill it and build stability afterwards.
If Alberta were to leave Canada, the economic consequences could be complex and far-reaching, affecting both Alberta and the rest of Canada. Here’s a breakdown of possible scenarios.
For Alberta
Short-Term Economic Disruption
Trade Barriers: Alberta relies heavily on trade with the rest of Canada. Secession would likely lead to tariffs, border controls, and regulatory divergence—at least temporarily.
Currency Uncertainty: Alberta would need to decide whether to create its own currency, use the Canadian dollar informally (“dollarization”), or seek a monetary union. Each option has risks, especially during the transition.
Investment Flight: Business uncertainty would likely trigger capital flight, reduced investment, and job losses initially.
Energy Sector Complications
Pipeline Access: Alberta is landlocked and exports oil and gas through pipelines across other provinces. A split could jeopardize pipeline access and add export costs.
Regulatory Challenges: A new country would need to set up its own energy regulation, environmental policy, and foreign investment rules, which could stall projects or deter investors.
Revenue and Spending
More Fiscal Autonomy: Alberta currently contributes more in federal taxes than it receives in transfers. Secession would end equalization payments and allow Alberta to keep more of its resource revenue.
Loss of Federal Services: Alberta would have to replace federal services like pensions (CPP), border security, and health funding, which could offset gains from fiscal autonomy.
For the rest of Canada:
Revenue Loss
Loss of a Net Contributor: Alberta contributes billions more to the federal budget than it receives. Its departure would create a fiscal gap that might require higher taxes or reduced services elsewhere.
Energy Supply and Economy
Resource Market Disruption: Alberta is Canada’s energy engine. Disruption in oil and gas supply chains would affect prices, energy security, and related industries nationwide.
Investor Confidence: Political instability caused by a province leaving could spook investors and weaken the Canadian dollar.
Political Ramifications
Precedent for Other Provinces: Quebec or other provinces could re-evaluate their place in Confederation, creating more uncertainty.
National Unity and International Standing: Canada’s global influence and credibility could suffer, potentially affecting trade agreements and diplomatic relationships.
Long-term results
Economic Adjustment: Over time, both Alberta and Canada could stabilize economically, with new trade deals and regulations. Alberta could benefit from policy independence, while Canada could adjust its fiscal priorities.
North American Integration?: Alberta might seek closer economic (or political) ties with the U.S., especially for energy exports and trade.
What do you think would happen in the short and long-term if Alberta separated?
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